Predictors of Revocation of Conditional Release among Substance Abusing Women Offenders

The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of conditional release failure amongst substance abusing women offenders. The sample consisted of federally sentenced women who were granted a conditional release between 1995 and 2000, and identified at intake as having a substance abuse problem. For the purposes of this study, conditional release included day parole, full parole, and statutory release. Several Three types of conditional release failure were considered (a) general revocation, (b) revocation with a new offence, and (c) revocation with a new violent offence. Revocation was defined as returning to federal custody after release and before warrant expiry. The base rate of general revocation was high (48%), revocation with a new offence was moderate (16%); revocation with a new violent offence was low (4%). For the most part, variables that predicted the more specific outcomes, were also associated with the most general revocation variable. Age was significantly and negatively associated with revocation. Several admission offence types were positively associated with revocation including theft, miscellaneous non-violent offences, and robbery. Five of the seven CIS domains demonstrated a significant association with revocation: employment, associates, substance abuse, community, and attitude. The overall CIS Need and Risk ratings also demonstrated a moderate association with revocation failure. Having completed substance abuse treatment was not associated with conditional release outcome. iv A backwards logistic regression reduced the list of predictive variables to six unique The results suggest that the prediction of post-release outcome for substance abusing women can be improved by attending to the noted risk and need factors.